Saturday, September 30, 2006

A deviation from my recent posts

I've been looking through my recent posts trying to correct all the misspelled words, and it hit me that most of them talk about my relationship with either some guy or my friends... Not that there's anything wrong with that... but I figured I have to diversify, unlike other well-known individuals.
You have probably guessed that I am talking about the latest buzz around Amaranth - a former very successful multistrategy hedge fund betting on energy and commodities. Although once it lost $6 out of its $9 billions of capital, it became obvious that it was neither multistrategy nor well-hedged. The thing that amuses me the most is that it's been losing money for some time now, and the first signs appeared as early as last May, but it didn't stop its portfolio managers from betting even higher on the natural gas futures. Of course, it's very easy to blame the fate for this turn, but let's be real - the decline in natural gas prices was highly anticipated given the bearish conditions in the market. And seriously, even if you do go against the common sense and place a bullish spread on futures, be reasonable and don't bet the entire capital on it. But as some people say, shit happens.
The funniest thing was when I started getting multiple phone calls at work from some of the managers trying to cover up their asses. My work involves dealing with certain portfolio managers, their monthly performance to be exact, so it's no wonder I got all these calls explaining that they had nothing to do with Amaranth, or sold out their positions long before the evaporation of the capital, or held only insignificant amounts of their own capital in a fund. Then the emails followed, then the letters... many managers, same idea. I can't really blame them since I am not sure I would have acted any different - bottom line is no one wants their clients start pulling out money just because they think they've been exposed. Although 1.5% exposure to Amaranth resulted in a loss of up to 170bps in just one month. Pretty significant amount if you ask me considering the size of investment. I had to promise everyone that I would definitely note that in the final analysis so their losses/weak returns don't seem so bad.
I actually talked to my dad about it yesterday since he was trying to get me to invest in some highly profitable mutual funds. I think Amaranth is the best example that you can't really rely on current information and certainly can't put all your eggs in one basket. I will never forget my first ever finance class when my professor told us the most important thing one should remember when investing money - diversify. He said, if we remember nothing else from his classes, we should know this. And I am puzzled how those managers could forget this simple rule. Especially if you take into account that the guy managing these particular bets was fairly young and couldn't have graduated such a long time ago to forget all he learned in school.
So I guess what I am trying to say here - don't try to make all the money in the world cause it's never going to happen, and if you do - don't bet your entire capital on it.

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

From Russia with love...

I just got such an amazing present, I've been dancing around in my car on my way home. My friend just came back from Moscow and gave me a plush toy Cheburashka... it is a cartoon hero that I LOVED when I was little... it is so cute. I was actually thinking how to describe it, and then it hit me: google it. I didn't know Wikipedia had references to him, but apparently they do. Check this out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheburashka. Isn't it adorable? And the real thing looks even better. I am ecstatic... seriously.
I am also ecstatic, but not in a good way, about my busy season at work. It is starting in two weeks and I am just counting days. Oh, I miss those 60 hours work weeks and breakfast, lunch and dinner at my desk. At least it takes me next to nothing to get home in the evening... because all normal people finished work four hours ago and a resting at home watching TV. I also miss working with multiple clients at the same time and trying to explain everyone that I only have two hands and cannot finish up a report in 20 minutes. Apparently people don't care when it doesn't come to them... harsh reality.
Why am I watching infomercials anyway? Tonight, they are trying to convince me that I can lose 5 inches off of my waste in a week... I think they are offering plastic surgery because that's the only way I see to lose so much weight in just seven days. I should've just gone out so I wouldn't be stuck with "no TV after 3am". Unfortunately, I fell asleep when I got home from work and missed all the fun, and when my friend woke me up to go out I was too lazy to do anything. Besides, it was after midnight and it didn't make much sense to go anywhere at that point. So I stayed home to catch up on my post and my bills. Mission accomplished... both of them. Alright, this commercial with their melting weight is definitely driving me crazy, and that second ice cream I am finishing does not help. It tastes so good though I cannot resist. I guess I'll work out tomorrow - that's what I tell myself every day anyway. Tomorrow will be a better day to work out and start eating right and stop smoking and quitting drinking and living longer. Tomorrow, not tonight.
And tonight, from Russia with love... to everyone I love and not so much...

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

An uncomfortable feeling

I feel so, so, SO bad... It was my friend's birthday last Saturday and I didn't make it to her party... Details to follow as to why. She was supposed to have a house party at first and then go to the club, which I am guessing she did... and I wasn't there. I did call her and I really hope she will forgive and understand. If only I didn't go out the night before and didn't have to spend all Saturday in bed because I was so spent. I mean, I do not regret I went out Friday, but it's just turned out to be impolite not to show up for her birthday. Oh well, I am keeping my fingers crossed. I texted her from work the other day apologizing that I couldn't make it and asking how it went. Her response? "It was fun, but I missed you" - the last drop to make me feel like shit. I've been kicking myself ever since. It's nice to vent though.
Now, the reason I didn't make it to the party is old as world - I was recovering from another party. Last week my friend called me suggesting we get together but stay in rather than going out on the town. Since I have been out to DC pretty much every weekend since ... can't even remember when... I agreed. We got some wine and it was supposed to be a slow and relaxed night. Except we got too much wine. Three bottles to be exact. And we finished it up in about two hours. No wonder it hit us pretty fast and hard. And what is a better thing to do when you are drunk home on a Friday night than to watch some porn! Have you ever tried watching porn when someone else was in a room and it wasn't your boyfriend? Well, I have now... Actually I've watched it before, but that was more of a joke than a real deal and a whole different story anyway. All we managed to do was giggle for the most part of the movie and commenting on guys' performances and comparing it to real people. Actually, commenting and comparing overshadowed the laughter. I learned so much stuff about other people, people I actually know... now I am thinking maybe I know a bit too much. Just blame the wine. I don't know about my friend, but I haven't finished the movie and just passed out in bed... this huge, unbelievably comfortable king-size bed with the most luxurious and soft sheets... or maybe I was just drunk and didn't know any better. But I think it was one of the best night-sleeps that I got in a long time. When I woke up the next morning, everyone was gone though, which was kind of weird since it wasn't even noon. When I finally reached my friend (actually they reached me), I found out that everyone has left for work without telling me anything or even bothering to wake me up. It worked out just fine for me because I don't think I would have been very happy if someone tried to wake me up at 8 am if I went to bed around four.
So aside from me missing my friend's birthday the following day, my weekend was awesome. I slept for the most part Saturday since I was so tired after the work week and Friday night. Well, I might have wrecked a relationship with my friend, but at least I got my beauty sleep. Nice trade-off, huh?