I've been looking through my recent posts trying to correct all the misspelled words, and it hit me that most of them talk about my relationship with either some guy or my friends... Not that there's anything wrong with that... but I figured I have to diversify, unlike other well-known individuals.
You have probably guessed that I am talking about the latest buzz around Amaranth - a former very successful multistrategy hedge fund betting on energy and commodities. Although once it lost $6 out of its $9 billions of capital, it became obvious that it was neither multistrategy nor well-hedged. The thing that amuses me the most is that it's been losing money for some time now, and the first signs appeared as early as last May, but it didn't stop its portfolio managers from betting even higher on the natural gas futures. Of course, it's very easy to blame the fate for this turn, but let's be real - the decline in natural gas prices was highly anticipated given the bearish conditions in the market. And seriously, even if you do go against the common sense and place a bullish spread on futures, be reasonable and don't bet the entire capital on it. But as some people say, shit happens.
The funniest thing was when I started getting multiple phone calls at work from some of the managers trying to cover up their asses. My work involves dealing with certain portfolio managers, their monthly performance to be exact, so it's no wonder I got all these calls explaining that they had nothing to do with Amaranth, or sold out their positions long before the evaporation of the capital, or held only insignificant amounts of their own capital in a fund. Then the emails followed, then the letters... many managers, same idea. I can't really blame them since I am not sure I would have acted any different - bottom line is no one wants their clients start pulling out money just because they think they've been exposed. Although 1.5% exposure to Amaranth resulted in a loss of up to 170bps in just one month. Pretty significant amount if you ask me considering the size of investment. I had to promise everyone that I would definitely note that in the final analysis so their losses/weak returns don't seem so bad.
I actually talked to my dad about it yesterday since he was trying to get me to invest in some highly profitable mutual funds. I think Amaranth is the best example that you can't really rely on current information and certainly can't put all your eggs in one basket. I will never forget my first ever finance class when my professor told us the most important thing one should remember when investing money - diversify. He said, if we remember nothing else from his classes, we should know this. And I am puzzled how those managers could forget this simple rule. Especially if you take into account that the guy managing these particular bets was fairly young and couldn't have graduated such a long time ago to forget all he learned in school.
So I guess what I am trying to say here - don't try to make all the money in the world cause it's never going to happen, and if you do - don't bet your entire capital on it.
Saturday, September 30, 2006
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